THE OLIVER TWIST

Sept 7, 2021

Vancouver Canucks GM Jim Benning believes that Oliver Ekman-Larsson can be a number one defenseman in the NHL, and has hedged his bets to the tune of 7.26M for the next six seasons. Only a year into his 66M, 8 year contract, the former Arizona Coyotes captain was rumored to be shopped. Whether it was due to a decline in performance, or more cost cutting measures for the woe stricken Phoenix based team is up to debate. However, a failed trade conclusion and a year later, those answers have been answered. A little of column A, a little of column B.

Arizona has gone through a full “transformation”, more accurately described as a full teardown. Important and arguably core pieces of the Coyotes hockey club have been sloughed off, like poo freshly stepped into by a shoe. You can only do so much finagling and dog legged wagging before you come to the realization that shit is a part of your life now. You have to feel for Coyotes fans, while few and far in between, if their attendance is any indicator. They will only have 5 roster players signed beyond this upcoming year, and that’s only if you include the likes of Conor Timmins, the return for trading their no.1 netminder, Darcy Kuemper to Colorado, and Shayne Gostisbehere, who has failed to prove himself as more than a powerplay specialist and was treated as a cap-dump at the eve of the 2021 NHL draft.

While the future is grim for this crowd sourced and NHL subsidized hockey club, the only glimmer of hope that the Coyotes may have would be if they were the Quebec Nordiques.

Anyways, now that I’ve had my morning coffee and taken my morning dump all over Arizona, lets move on to the man Vancouver will surely task to be their all-situations ice-time leader, Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

Well, let’s start with the positives. He has consistently tallied 40+ pts in his career, in Arizona where offense and heat stroke victims go to die. Some of these seasons are seriously impressive; near the top or leading his team in scoring, as a defenseman. It was not a surprise that they rewarded him with a hefty contract to remain in Phoenix, though that marriage ended quite unceremoniously this July.

In a cap dump of epic proportions, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, along with a talented top-six winger in Conor Garland was traded to Vancouver for Loui Eriksson, Antoine Roussel, Jay Beagle and a 1st round pick. Quite the fall for the man who many had tapped to be a future Norris Trophy winner.

Well, let’s take a deeper dive on OEL, shall we? What, you don’t want to? Well too bad, because by the time you’re reading this, I’ve already done it. So suck it.

The analytics raise a troubling red flag. His corsi percentage, the ratio of shots for versus against when he is on the ice has been on a steep decline the last few years. His final season with Coyotes saw him with a 47.9% Corsi, 5th on the team. The Coyotes were outscored by 14 goals with him on the ice, worst on the team.

Some would say these numbers lack context. Perhaps he faced very difficult conpetition and Arizona is not exactly known for scoring goals or winning hockey games? While that may have been in the case in the past, the latest season saw Arizona easing up his workload, with underwhelming returns. The unsigned Jason Demers and retired Niklas Hjalmarsson had a higher defensive zone start ratio and got much better results. Jakob Chychrun had himself a breakout year, with some calling him a shoe-in for the Canadian Olympic team. He would face tougher competition more often than OEL, who faced tough competition less than the league average.

Well, holy fuck. If you’re a Canucks fan, you must be on the white cliffs of dover, ready for that sweet release of death. Well, let me give you a nice big shove for good measure.

It is a certified fact that OEL was on the ice for 674 shot attempts 5-on-5 last season. Of these shot attempts, 100 of them were of the high-danger variety, as defined by Natural Stat Trick. The heat charts are a hill of red right in the slot area, making the fifth highest high-danger shot attempts in the NHL (among defenseman with at least 500 minutes 5-on-5) make a lot of sense.

Statistically, Oliver has been a defenseman that produces on the powerplay. Boasting confident puck poise, movement and a consistently big shot from the point, you can easily see why he once scored 21 goals and 55 points in a season.

The problem is that the top PP role is already occupied by Quinn Hughes, one of the league’s best offensive defenseman. Are they really going to take Hughes off of that unit in order to revitalize OEL’s declining game? It’s unlikely. Armed with that and the fact that the defenseman on the Canucks 2nd PP unit averaged only a minute per game, it does not look likely that Oliver will find the opportunity to make an impact on the power play.

There are a few things to be hopeful about in regards to Ekman-Larsson, but the keyword really is hope. Oliver is only 30 years old, certainly not an old man by NHL defenseman standards. He still employs a skilled stick, combined with excellent hockey IQ, making him a candidate to age gracefully.

How much his injuries have anchored him and how much his intelligence will buoy him will always be the seesaw that threatens to tip the wrong way. Perhaps it already has. Some will point to his butting of heads with the departed former Coyotes head coach Rick Tocchet as a reason for OEL's downturn. A fundamental chasm of ideologies that was too far apart to bridge. Others will see an under-motivated Ekman-Larsson, crumbling under the weight of expectation, extracurricular business turmoil and helming a losing team year after year as the reason for his underperformance. Whichever side you may stand on this uncivility of words among Canucks fans, the only thing there is left to do is to hope that OEL bounces back against expectation.

Hope should be something that Canucks fans are well acquainted with. Here’s to hoping this captain can right his ship, lest he face the wrath of the Orca.